SBS半年总结：上半年供强需弱SBS承压震荡下行

Core Viewpoint - The SBS market is experiencing a downward trend in the first half of 2025 due to oversupply and negative impacts from export tariffs, with expectations of continued pressure on prices in the second half of the year [1][2][8] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the SBS market price showed a general downward trend, aligning with previous forecasts, with a price fluctuation lower than expected [1][2] - The average price in the East China 792E market was 14,514 CNY/ton in Q1, down 4.16% from the previous quarter, and the price as of June 30 was 12,950 CNY/ton, a 10.7% decrease from the beginning of the year [2][3] Supply and Production - Domestic SBS production increased significantly, reaching 487,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 35.13% year-on-year growth, with June production hitting a record high of 89,000 tons [5] - The average gross profit for domestic SBS was 523 CNY/ton, an increase of 803 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year, indicating a generally favorable profit level [5] Demand and Export - Demand for SBS was lower than expected due to macroeconomic factors and tariff impacts, with fixed asset investment in transportation down 7.7% year-on-year [7] - Although SBS exports increased by 10.69% year-on-year in the first five months, April saw a negative growth of 12.58% month-on-month, reflecting the adverse effects of tariffs [7] Future Outlook - The SBS market is expected to face continued supply pressure in the second half of 2025, with new production facilities coming online and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][9] - The anticipated price range for SBS in the East China market for the second half is projected to be between 11,500 and 13,600 CNY/ton, influenced by seasonal demand and the performance of raw material markets [10]