特朗普50%铜关税范围或扩至半成品，美国电网、数据中心建设可能面临冲击

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump will not only include refined copper but also cover semi-finished products, significantly amplifying the market impact of the tariff [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff will apply to semi-finished copper products such as copper wire, copper plates, and copper tubes, which are essential for sectors like power grids, military, and data centers [1][2]. - The implementation of the tariff is set to begin on August 1, 2025, although the final details of the tariff measures are still subject to change [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts from Huatai Securities predict that the copper price may experience a correction after the tariff is implemented, especially given the traditional off-peak season in July and August, but they view this correction as a potential buying opportunity [1]. - The inclusion of semi-finished products in the tariff could disrupt processors who rely on imported raw materials, leading to increased costs across various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, construction, and military [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products. Last year, the U.S. imported approximately 800,000 tons of copper and copper alloy semi-finished products [2]. - Any disruption in foreign copper and semi-finished product supply could pose significant challenges for the U.S. power supply [2]. Group 4: Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the tariff may positively impact COMEX copper prices due to the nature of the tariff being applied to imports, which will increase costs reflected in domestic prices [3]. - However, the short-term impact on prices may be mitigated by existing inventory levels, which can be consumed before the full effect of the tariff is felt [3]. - HSBC anticipates that a "buying spree" may temporarily elevate copper prices in Shanghai and London, but once the tariff policy is clarified, excess copper may return to the global market, exerting downward pressure on prices [4].