野村：未来几周是关税效应释放的关键窗口，美国滞胀风险加剧，美联储或等到12月才降息

Core Viewpoint - Nomura warns that the global economy is entering an uncertain phase, with underestimation of policy risks potentially becoming a significant concern in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Economic Outlook - The global economy is facing extreme uncertainty, particularly due to the new U.S. administration's policies and geopolitical risks [3][5]. - The U.S. is expected to experience typical stagflation pressures, with rising inflation and slowing growth, leading the Federal Reserve to be cautious and likely delaying interest rate cuts until December [1][3][5]. - Core CPI in the U.S. is projected to rebound to 3.3% in the fourth quarter due to rising import costs and tariffs impacting consumer prices [1][3][18]. U.S. Trade Policy - Trump's use of tariffs is not solely aimed at reducing the trade deficit but is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical considerations [3][8]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from the EU if high tariffs are imposed is significant, and ongoing negotiations are crucial [9][3]. Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are at their highest in decades, with political influence potentially affecting monetary policy [2][23][27]. - The upcoming vacancies in the Federal Reserve Board may provide Trump with opportunities to influence the central bank's direction [1][23][27]. Inflation Factors - Current low inflation levels in the U.S. are expected to rise due to tariffs, labor shortages from immigration policies, and potential fiscal policy expansions ahead of midterm elections [18][20][21]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is acknowledged, but its deflationary effects are still in early stages and may not significantly counteract inflationary pressures in the short term [29]. Market Sentiment - The market appears overly optimistic regarding the potential outcomes of the trade war, with expectations that tariffs will not significantly impact economic data [20][21]. - There is a notable shift in investment patterns, with a diversification away from U.S. assets towards European markets, driven by geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [31][32].