IEA：油市表面过剩实则趋紧，OPEC+增产影响不大

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that despite a supply-demand imbalance showing oversupply, the global oil market may be tighter than it appears due to refineries increasing processing rates to meet summer travel demand [2] - IEA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up by 300,000 bpd from previous estimates, while demand is expected to grow by only 700,000 bpd, indicating significant oversupply [2] - The IEA notes that the recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate the easing of production cuts has not had a substantial impact on the market, as price indicators suggest that the physical crude oil market is tighter than the supply-demand balance data indicates [2] Oil Supply and Demand - IEA projects that global oil demand will grow by an average of 720,000 bpd next year, down by 20,000 bpd from previous forecasts, while supply growth is expected to be 1.3 million bpd, indicating that oversupply will persist [2] - OPEC officials and Western oil executives have stated that the increase in production has not led to a rise in inventories, suggesting that the market still "craves more crude" [2] Russian Oil Exports - IEA reports a continuous decline in Russian crude and product oil exports, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain production capacity [3] - In June, Russian crude oil loading averaged 4.68 million bpd, while product oil exports fell by 110,000 bpd to 2.55 million bpd, marking the lowest levels for this time of year in five years [4] - Despite the decline in export volumes, Russia's oil export revenue increased to $13.6 billion in June, up by over $800 million from May, reflecting a 6.4% increase due to supply concerns and rising international oil prices [5]