美联储内部分歧加剧，黄金出现反弹

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding future interest rate paths, with most members suggesting a potential for rate cuts this year, while external pressures, including Trump's calls for lower rates, add to market uncertainty [1][2][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - The minutes indicate a split among Federal Reserve officials on the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, with a majority believing that tariffs have raised business costs and could lead to higher consumer prices, adjusting the core PCE inflation median to 3.1% [2][3]. - A minority of officials argue that tariff impacts are one-time adjustments, suggesting limited inflationary pressure and advocating for early rate cuts to mitigate economic downturn risks [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the minutes, market optimism regarding a shift in Fed policy diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 85% to 65%, and expectations for two rate cuts by year-end remaining dominant but with a reduced single cut magnitude from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3][5]. Key Variables Influencing Future Policy - Future policy decisions will hinge on four main variables: the evolution of tariff policies, confirmation of inflation stickiness through CPI data, resilience in the labor market, and global risk preferences influenced by geopolitical events and energy price fluctuations [4][5]. External Influences - Trump's renewed criticism of the Fed's interest rate policies, claiming they are excessively high, and his consideration of appointing a "shadow chairman" to exert pressure on the Fed, highlight the political dynamics affecting monetary policy [6]. Gold Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market, particularly gold, is experiencing fluctuations influenced by trade negotiation uncertainties, a strong dollar, and cautious Fed policies, with current market conditions favoring gold prices due to ongoing global economic uncertainties and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [7].