重磅发布｜我为何在狂风暴雨中坚定看多美元资产？《关税冲击：美国宏观经济与金融市场报告》

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on US dollar assets despite market turmoil caused by reciprocal tariffs, suggesting that the worst is over and that current conditions present a buying opportunity for US stocks [2] - The report outlines the impact of reciprocal tariffs on the US macroeconomic cycle, analyzing the asset-liability cycle, technological innovation cycle, and physical investment cycle [4][8] Group 2 - The asset-liability cycle indicates that when balance sheets expand, it leads to economic growth and rising inflation, while contraction results in recession and deflation. The public sector's intervention aims to stabilize these cycles [5][6] - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the US has seen a significant expansion of public sector balance sheets, with the Federal Reserve's assets increasing from $0.9 trillion to $4.5 trillion, and federal debt rising from $9.21 trillion to $18.14 trillion [7][15] - The private sector's leverage ratios have decreased significantly, with household leverage dropping from 98.5% to 78.8% and corporate leverage from 74% to 71.9% [11] Group 3 - The technological innovation cycle is marked by the emergence of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, which has spurred significant capital inflow into the tech sector, leading to a bullish trend in tech stocks [17][22] - It is anticipated that the next 3-5 years will see substantial commercial outcomes from large models in various industries, enhancing labor efficiency and investment returns [22] Group 4 - The physical investment cycle is entering a new phase, driven by aging infrastructure and the recent $1.2 trillion infrastructure investment bill passed during the Biden administration [23][26] - The current environment suggests a potential expansion in physical investment, although uncertainties remain regarding the Trump administration's stance on infrastructure spending [26] Group 5 - The overall economic outlook indicates that the US is transitioning from a low-growth, low-inflation, and low-interest-rate environment to a new cycle of growth, with significant potential for asset price increases in the coming years [26]