年内累计涨幅达36% 银价创近13年来新高

Price Surge - Silver prices have surged significantly in 2023, with spot silver exceeding $36 per ounce in early July, marking a 36% increase year-to-date, outperforming gold's 25% rise during the same period [1] - The physical silver investment market has seen a strong uptick, with a 40% increase in sales of silver bars and ingots, and a 30% year-on-year rise in recycling prices, reaching approximately $33 per ounce [2] Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple structural factors, including heightened geopolitical risks, strong industrial demand, and a shift in investment from gold to silver due to valuation corrections [3] - The expansion of the photovoltaic industry is expected to create a silver supply gap of 117 million ounces by 2025, providing fundamental support for silver prices [5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified investment approach, including physical silver assets and financial derivatives like silver ETFs, while maintaining strict position management to mitigate risks [6][7] - A "dumbbell strategy" is recommended, allocating 20%-40% to safer assets like government bonds to balance silver investment risks [7] Future Outlook - Short-term silver price movements may face volatility, with potential downward pressure if global trade tensions ease or if the Federal Reserve delays easing measures [5] - Long-term trends remain bullish, with potential price targets of $38-$40 per ounce if silver breaks through the $37 resistance level [5]