凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储官员降息预期跨度显著

Group 1 - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials highlights the challenges in decision-making regarding inflation and interest rates, with Daly suggesting a milder impact from tariffs and Musalem emphasizing the delayed effects [1][6] - Daly's confidence stems from companies' ability to manage cost pressures through supply chain negotiations, profit margin compression, and operational efficiency, as evidenced by the increase in inventory turnover rates among U.S. importers [3][6] - The latest data supports Daly's assessment of the U.S. economy, showing a moderate cooling with consumer spending growth slowing but not contracting, a stable labor market, and inflation trending towards the 2% target [6][9] Group 2 - Concerns about the global implications of U.S. trade policy changes are rising, with warnings from industry leaders about potential risks to small businesses and the broader economy [9] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate adjustments, as market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [9]