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Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant surge in interest in stablecoins, with the Wind Stablecoin Index rising over 40% since its launch on June 3 [1] - Circle's IPO on the NYSE has sparked a wave of enthusiasm for stablecoins in the US market, with the stock experiencing a price increase of over 190% since June 5 [1][2] - Circle's core business revolves around the issuance and operation of stablecoins, primarily generating revenue from reserve income [2][3] Company Overview - Circle is a leading issuer in the stablecoin market, with its USDC stablecoin having a total market capitalization of approximately $60 billion, accounting for 24% of the stablecoin market [2] - The stablecoin market is dominated by two major players: Tether's USDT with a 60% market share and Circle's USDC, which together represent 84% of the market [2] Revenue and Income - Circle's projected revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are $772 million, $1.45 billion, and $1.676 billion, respectively, with reserve income constituting 99% of total revenue in 2023 and 2024 [3] - Reserve income is generated from interest and dividends on assets held in reserve accounts, including cash and US Treasury securities [3] Cost Structure - The primary expense for Circle is the distribution cost paid to Coinbase, projected to be $900 million in 2024, representing 54% of total revenue [4] - Circle's gross margin is expected to be 39% in 2024, with a declining trend in gross margin attributed to changes in the distribution agreement with Coinbase [4] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of at least $4 trillion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% [7] - The US government is actively promoting stablecoin development to maintain the dollar's dominance in the digital age and to facilitate transactions bypassing traditional banking systems [7][8] Investment Sentiment - Circle's valuation has soared post-IPO, reaching a peak PE-TTM of 373x, reflecting investor optimism about the stablecoin market despite concerns over revenue and profit fundamentals [6][9] - The competitive landscape, characterized by a duopoly, positions Circle to benefit from the rapid growth of the stablecoin market [9] Strategic Partnerships - Circle's collaboration with Coinbase is crucial for expanding the stablecoin market, as it provides necessary trading platforms and compliance assurances [5] - The partnership enhances Circle's operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its status as a leading stablecoin issuer [5][9]