沙特罕见“背叛”，上月原油产量超配额，IEA：今年供应增速将快于预期

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia, a key player in OPEC+, has notably increased its oil production beyond its quota, raising output to approximately 9.8 million barrels per day, exceeding its OPEC+ quota by about 400,000 barrels per day [1][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels from previous estimates, while demand growth is projected at only 700,000 barrels per day, the slowest since 2009 [1][5] - Despite a significant increase in supply, global oil demand is showing signs of weakness, particularly in developing countries, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [5][6] Production and Supply Dynamics - Multiple OPEC+ members, including Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, have collectively raised their production levels beyond established quotas, with Saudi Arabia's increase being the most pronounced [4] - The IEA's report confirms a substantial rise in Saudi oil exports, indicating a strategic shift to reallocate supplies amid geopolitical tensions [4] Market Conditions and Price Trends - Oil prices have declined by approximately 13% since mid-June, with Brent crude trading near $69 per barrel, as concerns over supply surplus overshadow geopolitical risks [1][6] - The IEA notes that while refinery operations have increased to meet seasonal demand, the market's tightness is expected to dissipate, leading to a projected accumulation of global oil inventories at a rate of about 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2023 [6]