日债爆雷波及全球长债市场，美国30年期国债收益率一度逼近5%！

Group 1 - The core issue of the "long bond crisis" is not just supply and demand but also the impact of currency basis swaps leading to a global bond market crash [2][5] - The Japanese long-term bonds and U.S. long-term bonds have shown unprecedented coupling, where a crisis in one country's bonds can trigger a crisis in others, indicating a high level of interconnectedness in the bond markets [12][9] - The global public debt is projected to reach a historical high of $102 trillion in 2024, up from $97 trillion in 2023, exacerbating the situation as developed countries reduce their purchases of long-term bonds due to aging populations [1] Group 2 - The recent sell-off in Japanese long-term bonds has led to a significant increase in yields, with the 30-year Japanese government bond yield rising from 2.85% to 3.10%, a 25 basis point increase [1] - The sell-off in Japanese bonds has caused a ripple effect, leading to increased yields in German and U.S. bonds, with the German 30-year bond yield rising from 3.1% to 3.21% and U.S. 30-year bonds exceeding 4.9% [1] - Historical patterns indicate that this is not the first occurrence of a "long bond crisis," as similar events were observed in April and May, highlighting the increasing sensitivity and deteriorating liquidity in long-term bond markets [8][6]