Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-11 22:08Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, highlighting the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the Fed's interest rate decisions [1][4][11] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have diverged, with a 21% probability for July and over 90% for September, reflecting internal debates within the Federal Reserve [2][4] - The core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% and income dropped by 0.4%, indicating a mixed economic outlook [2][6] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies have disrupted the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts, with officials divided on the timing and necessity of such cuts [4][6] - The article notes that hawkish officials are concerned about inflation, while dovish officials downplay the impact of tariffs on prices [6][11] - The U.S. deficit is projected to reach $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and its implications for monetary policy [7][11] Group 3 - Despite the market turmoil, the Nasdaq index reached a new high, driven by optimism from investment banks regarding interest rate cuts and corporate earnings resilience [9][11] - The article warns of a narrowing market breadth, with significant gains concentrated in a few tech stocks, raising concerns about the overall market health [9][11] - The ongoing conflict between the Fed's independence and Trump's fiscal policies is framed as a battle for the future of global financial order [11]