全球车市格局生变？“大而美”法案“扇动翅膀”，混动市场或迎“小阳春”

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act significantly impacts the electric vehicle (EV) market in the U.S., leading to a shift in consumer behavior and production strategies among automakers, particularly affecting Tesla and new entrants in the EV space [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Electric Vehicles - The $7,500 federal tax credit for new EV purchases will end earlier than expected, reducing consumer incentives and potentially leading to a 20% drop in EV sales starting October [2][4]. - The Act mandates a 60% domestic component requirement for EVs starting in 2026, increasing to 100% by 2030, pressuring automakers to localize production [2][3]. - The introduction of registration fees for EVs ($250) and hybrids ($100) aims to compensate for lost gasoline tax revenue, further increasing the cost of EV ownership [2][4]. Group 2: Favorable Policies for Traditional Vehicles - The Act allows the continued sale of gasoline vehicles by revoking California's 2035 ban, thus preserving market space for traditional automakers [3][4]. - It also extends the validity of federal land oil and gas drilling permits from annual renewals to four years, facilitating energy project approvals [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Automakers - Major automakers like Nissan and Honda are delaying or scaling back their EV projects in response to the Act, with Nissan postponing the production of two electric crossovers by nearly a year [5][6]. - Ford has already abandoned plans for large electric SUVs and may reduce electric pickup production, focusing instead on hybrid models [6][8]. - The Act's provisions for tax deductions on manufacturing investments are expected to attract automakers to establish production facilities in the U.S. [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The Act's policies may lead to a resurgence of hybrid vehicles, as they become more economically attractive compared to EVs due to lower registration fees and relaxed compliance standards [8][10]. - A significant portion of potential EV consumers (43%) may consider switching to hybrid models, indicating a shift in market preferences [8][10]. - The global automotive industry may see a slowdown in the electrification trend as many automakers pause their EV transition plans [8][10]. Group 5: Export Trends in China - China's plug-in hybrid vehicle exports are expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 297,000 units in 2024, reflecting a 190% increase, while pure electric vehicle exports are projected to decline [9][10]. - The increasing popularity of plug-in hybrids in regions with inadequate charging infrastructure positions them as a potential mainstay in China's automotive export strategy [9][10].