Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-07-12 01:09Group 1: Market Sentiment - The positive impact of short positions and sentiment in the US stock market may have largely passed, with fundamentals expected to become the main driver across asset classes in the second half of the year [2][4] - Market sentiment indicators are slightly above long-term averages, indicating a shift towards optimism [2] Group 2: Macro Research Focus - Goldman Sachs has lowered its US Treasury yield expectations, now forecasting 2-year and 10-year yields to reach 3.45% and 4.20% respectively by year-end, indicating a slight steepening of the yield curve [4] - The firm has raised its forward P/E ratio expectations for the S&P 500 from 20.4x to 22x, increasing target levels for the index to 6400, 6600, and 6900 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [4][5] Group 3: Tax and Trade Implications - The anticipated increase in tariffs, including a 25% tariff on copper, is expected to add to the already projected 14 percentage point rise in effective US tariff rates this year [5][6] - Ongoing tariff negotiations may create uncertainty for US businesses and foreign investors, contributing to expectations of a weaker dollar [6][7] Group 4: Global Economic Impact - The implementation of tariffs is expected to suppress export growth for US trading partners, with an estimated overall export decline of 4%-5% for major economies [12] - The anticipated effects of tariffs and currency fluctuations may lead to a 1%-5% decline in industrial production and a 1-4 percentage point drop in manufacturing PMI in the coming months [12][13]