预测“20亿+”大片“消失”，留给暑期档电影的时间真不多了

Core Insights - The summer box office for 2024 is projected to reach 116.43 billion, but the current performance is significantly lagging behind, with only 29.31 billion recorded so far [3][4] - The current summer box office is considered to be the worst in the last decade, primarily due to the pandemic's impact on the film industry from 2020 to 2022 [3][4] - The lack of strong domestic films has resulted in a challenging environment for local productions, with only two films surpassing the 100 million mark in June [6][8] Box Office Performance - The summer box office has only reached 29.31 billion as of mid-July, indicating a need for significant daily earnings to catch up to previous years [2][4] - The 2024 summer box office is expected to be better than the pandemic years but still falls short of historical averages [3][4] - The current threshold for a successful film has shifted, with 1 billion now seen as a benchmark and 3 billion as a blockbuster status [6] Domestic Film Challenges - Domestic films are struggling to recoup their investments, with many failing to reach the break-even point [6][7] - Notable films like "酱园弄·悬案" and "无名之辈2" have underperformed, with the former only achieving around 3.8 billion in box office despite a star-studded cast [9][14] - The overall sentiment is that the quality of domestic films is not meeting audience expectations, leading to poor box office results [10][13] International Film Success - Hollywood films have been performing well, with titles like "Mission: Impossible 8" and "Jurassic World: Dominion" leading the box office [17][20] - The success of these films contrasts sharply with the struggles of domestic productions, highlighting a shift in audience preference [17][18] - The upcoming release of "F1: Fast & Furious" is anticipated to be a major success, driven by strong word-of-mouth and high ratings [23][24] Future Outlook - The industry is hopeful for a rebound in the latter part of the summer with upcoming releases, but the current trajectory suggests a challenging environment [26] - The potential for a significant box office recovery hinges on the performance of upcoming films, including animated features and anticipated blockbusters [26]