上半年上海办公楼市场空置率22.4％，投资市场大宗交易活跃度承压

Core Insights - The Shanghai office market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by insufficient new demand and rising vacancy rates, with an overall vacancy rate reaching 22.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the end of last year [1][5] - The market remains cautious, with continued downward pressure on rents driving cost-sensitive relocations, as tenants seek more favorable lease terms [1][2] Market Overview - In Q2 2025, the Shanghai office market recorded a net absorption of approximately 57,300 square meters, with non-CBD areas showing a net absorption of about 74,200 square meters, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises and third-party office operators [2][5] - The overall vacancy rate in the market increased by 1.2 percentage points to 24.6%, with the CBD vacancy rate rising to 16.9% [2][3] Rental Trends - Rental rates for Grade A office buildings continued to decline, with CBD rents decreasing by 2.4% to 6.9 RMB/sqm/day and non-CBD rents down by 2.7% to 4.5 RMB/sqm/day [3][6] - Landlords are maintaining flexible negotiation terms to stabilize occupancy rates and attract new tenants, often agreeing to lease restructuring under extended lease conditions [3][6] Investment Activity - In Q2 2025, the Shanghai commercial real estate market recorded 23 asset transactions totaling 8.2 billion RMB, with office assets accounting for 38% of the total transaction value [6][7] - The average transaction value for individual projects decreased to 360 million RMB, with 61% of transactions occurring in the 100 million to 300 million RMB range, indicating increased liquidity in smaller assets [6][7] Sector Demand - The financial sector led the market with a 22% share, driven by funds and non-bank financial institutions, followed by consumer goods manufacturing at 17% and TMT at 16% [5][7] - Despite challenges, the market showed signs of activity, with a 126.1% increase in net absorption compared to the previous period, indicating a potential recovery in the high-end manufacturing, TMT, and financial sectors [5][7] Future Outlook - An estimated 770,000 square meters of new supply is expected in the next six months, which may increase market competition but also enhance liquidity and rental transaction activity [5][7] - The focus on core assets and emerging sectors is expected to continue, with investors showing interest in properties with stable cash flows and growth potential [7]