国内股指期货创阶段性新高

Core Viewpoint - The domestic stock index futures have shown a strong upward trend, breaking previous highs due to optimistic market sentiment and structural market dynamics [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has positively influenced market expectations for a new round of supply-side reforms, leading to a notable turnaround in previously underperforming sectors such as new energy and building materials [1][2]. - The recent shift in CPI from negative to positive, with June CPI ending a four-month decline and core CPI reaching a 14-month high, has boosted market confidence [1][2]. - The ongoing development of stablecoin-related stocks and a warming trade relationship between China and the U.S. have further enhanced risk appetite in the stock market [1][2]. Sector Performance - The "anti-involution" concept stocks, particularly in the steel industry, have shown strong performance, while the financial sector has also benefited from a recovery in IPOs and optimistic half-year reports from brokerages [2][3]. - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks due to heightened risk appetite and the favorable impact of the "anti-involution" policy on small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises [2][3]. Investment Strategies - The application of the "barbell strategy," which balances high-risk, high-reward assets with low-risk, low-volatility assets, has driven the overall upward trend in stock index futures [3]. - The defensive end of the barbell strategy is represented by the banking sector, which has attracted funds due to its high dividend yield, while the offensive end includes technology growth and small-cap stocks [3]. Future Outlook - The upward potential of stock indices will depend on the recovery of the economic fundamentals and the influx of new capital into the market, alongside the need for volume support [3][4]. - The market's upward movement is currently driven by sentiment and structural trends, but caution is advised regarding potential market pullbacks [3][4].