Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-12 03:28Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends in Baijiu Sector - Foreign investment in the baijiu sector has been decreasing, with Kweichow Moutai's foreign ownership dropping from 26% to nearly 13% over the past five years, representing a reduction of about 50% [1] - Other major baijiu companies have also seen significant reductions in foreign holdings, with Luzhou Laojiao decreasing from 8.1% to 4.5% (44% reduction), Yanghe from 27.4% to 3.5% (87% reduction), and Gujing Gong from 10.3% to 3.8% (63% reduction) [2] - Wuliangye has experienced a similar trend, with foreign ownership decreasing from 26% to approximately 7%, equating to a 73% reduction over the last five years [3] Group 2: Recent Performance and Forecasts - Recent quarterly data indicates that Kweichow Moutai had two quarters of net buying and two quarters of net selling, with total shares held decreasing from 87 million to 73 million, a 16% reduction over the past year [1] - Forecasts for the first half of 2025 suggest Kweichow Moutai will see a revenue growth of 9%, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 1-2%, and Luzhou Laojiao is projected to decline by 6-10% [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu is an exception, with foreign holdings increasing from 36 million to 49 million shares over the past year, indicating a 36% increase in foreign investment [12] Group 3: Overall Industry Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the baijiu industry appears cautious, with many companies experiencing declines in foreign investment, suggesting that the industry's fundamentals may not have fully bottomed out [9] - The baijiu index has been one of the worst-performing indices this year, raising concerns about whether the actual earnings will meet broker expectations [10]