Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2025-07-12 04:19Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to significantly increase in the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery of A-share market activity, positioning the brokerage sector as a leader in the current bull market [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Nine listed brokerages have all reported expected profit increases, with a total net profit potentially exceeding 9 billion yuan, and an average growth rate of around 300% [2]. - Specific forecasts include: - Hongta Securities: Net profit of approximately 651.37 million to 696.29 million yuan, growth of 45% to 55% [3]. - Guosen Securities: Net profit of approximately 4.78 billion to 5.53 billion yuan, growth of 52% to 76% [4]. - Huaxi Securities: Net profit of approximately 445 million to 575 million yuan, growth of 1025.19% to 1353.90% [3]. - Hato Securities: Net profit of approximately 380 million yuan, growth of about 233.10% [4]. - Caida Securities: Net profit of approximately 363.34 million to 404.25 million yuan, growth of 51% to 68% [4]. - Guosheng Jinkong: Net profit of approximately 150 million to 220 million yuan, growth of 236.85% to 394.05% [4]. - Jilin Aodong: Net profit of approximately 1.236 billion to 1.289 billion yuan, growth of 130% to 140% [3]. - Guolian Minsheng: Net profit of approximately 1.129 billion yuan, growth of 1183% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector has seen significant inflows of capital, with 1.253 billion yuan of leveraged funds net buying into the non-banking sector since July, ranking eighth among industry sectors [5]. - Analysts from various brokerages are optimistic about the brokerage sector, citing a stable bottom in the capital market and the potential for upward breakthroughs in equity markets [5]. - The current market rally is characterized by internal momentum rather than concentrated policy support, indicating a self-driven upward trend in the index due to sustained inflows of incremental capital [5].