原油行业观察：中东局势扰动短期定价；OPEC+增产主导中期逻辑

Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have significantly impacted oil prices, with a notable spike following Israel's airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, leading to a single-day increase of over 5% in Brent crude prices [2] - The subsequent threats from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. actions against Iranian facilities further heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions [2] - Following the ceasefire on June 24, oil prices retreated to pre-conflict levels, indicating a quick reversal of the geopolitical premium [2] - Despite the temporary easing of tensions, underlying issues such as the Iranian nuclear situation and the Strait of Hormuz dispute remain unresolved, keeping the market sensitive to sudden developments [2] Fundamental Pricing Logic - The oil market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to dictate price movements in the medium term, with EIA forecasting Brent crude prices to drop to $61 per barrel by the end of 2025 and further to $59 in 2026 due to rising global oil inventories and OPEC+ production increases [3] - OPEC+ has confirmed an acceleration of its production increase plan, aiming to meet its target of 2.2 million barrels per day by September, which is expected to maintain a supply surplus [3] - Demand is showing structural divergence, with U.S. summer travel boosting gasoline and jet fuel consumption, while China's low gasoline and diesel inventories and rising self-driving tourism support stable gasoline demand [3] - However, there are signs of weakening demand as global refinery margins shrink and peak demand for gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. has been reached [3] - Overall, Brent crude prices are projected to fluctuate around $60 per barrel in Q3 2025, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production rates, with potential for further declines if Middle Eastern tensions ease [3]