Group 1 - The market anticipates that Trump's plan to sanction Russian oil will strengthen supply-side soft power, leading to an increase in oil prices [1][4] - As of July 11, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $68.45 per barrel, up 2.82%, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.36 per barrel, up 2.51% [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, despite signs of oversupply, due to increased refinery processing to meet summer travel demand [2][3] Group 2 - The current oil price fluctuations are a result of the interplay between supply-side sanctions expectations and demand-side refinery needs, particularly from China [3][4] - The IEA's report indicates that the increase in refinery processing to meet summer demand masks the apparent oversupply, highlighting the strength of demand-side soft power [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China reached a record high of 1.57 million barrels per day in June, reflecting strong demand from China [2][4] Group 3 - Trump's anticipated sanctions on Russian oil are seen as a way to reshape global energy trade rules, which could lead to increased market anxiety over supply disruptions [4] - Historical precedents show that U.S. sanctions on countries like Venezuela and Iran have previously led to oil price increases of 1% to 2% [4] - The interplay of policy actions and market expectations often overshadows traditional supply-demand dynamics, indicating a shift in how oil prices are influenced [3][4]
邓正红能源软实力:夏季石油需求势头强劲 市场基本面趋紧支撑国际油价走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-12 05:42