Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-12 07:30Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in bank stocks has outperformed gold and the Nasdaq, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Stock Performance - The five major banks in China (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank) have reached historical highs, contributing to the A-share market's recovery to 3,500 points [3]. - The China Securities Bank Index has shown a remarkable increase since 2024, surpassing both gold and the Nasdaq in returns, establishing itself as a global high-yield asset champion [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Bank Stock Surge - The valuation of bank stocks has undergone significant repair, with price-to-book (PB) ratios declining faster than return on equity (ROE) in previous years, leading to an undervalued state that has now begun to correct [3]. - The introduction of policies in 2022 aimed at stabilizing the real estate market has alleviated financial risks, thereby improving the asset quality of banks and boosting investor confidence [3]. Group 3: Dividend Appeal - Current bank stocks offer an average dividend yield exceeding 4%, with some Hong Kong bank stocks reaching over 9%, making them more attractive compared to traditional savings [4]. - The downward trend in interest rates has positioned bank stocks as reliable "cash cows," providing stable dividends and appealing to investors seeking consistent returns [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Although gold has seen price increases due to a decline in trust in the dollar system, its long-term performance remains tied to the dollar's strength [4]. - The Nasdaq has faced challenges due to changing interest rate expectations and overvaluation concerns in some tech stocks, leading to a shift in capital towards bank stocks [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy, indicated by rising manufacturing PMI, is expected to positively influence bank credit demand [5]. - The push for financial openness and the accelerated internationalization of banks present significant growth opportunities in the future [5].