中美关税博弈下的最优均衡：谈判窗口是否存在？

Core Viewpoint - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to reshape global economic governance through high tariffs, currency devaluation, debt swaps, multilateral currency negotiations, and security fees, significantly impacting US-China relations as the two largest economies in the world [1] Group 1: Economic Strategies and Implications - The US is constructing a "negotiation mechanism" that emphasizes continuous pressure on China rather than seeking compromise, indicating a structural institutional conflict [2] - China's response should not only focus on current export data but also on how the US is shaping a new system centered on American interests, ensuring national security and technological leadership [6] - Tariff policies have entered a phase of "institutionalization, periodicity, and toolization," becoming a more operational and targeted mechanism within a broader institutional framework [6] Group 2: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" suggests that balancing trade relations with the US requires not only trade measures but also financial adjustments, including currency changes [7] - Achieving a theoretical compromise on tariffs may be challenging due to the US's unilateralism and the geopolitical threats it poses, which complicate negotiations [11] - High tariffs imposed by the US have raised procurement prices for Chinese products by approximately 18%-23%, leading to increased supply chain management costs for US companies rather than successfully eliminating Chinese goods [11] Group 3: Strategic Responses and Institutional Resilience - China should adopt a strategy of "structural hedging" rather than equal retaliation, focusing on the strategic significance of industries within the global value chain [16] - Experts suggest that China must proactively propose revisions to rules and optimize domestic and international trade regulations to enhance its negotiating power [21] - The US may strengthen ties with key trade partners to exert pressure on China, necessitating targeted negotiations and strategic positioning by China in response [21]