特朗普捅下大篓子，亲笔签下“万亿美元豪赌”，能不能赌赢？

Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" Act permanently extends and upgrades the tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including new personal and corporate tax reductions and an increase in the deduction limit for state and local taxes [1][3] - The corporate tax rate is permanently reduced from 35% to 21%, significantly alleviating the tax burden on businesses [1] Healthcare Impact - The Act significantly cuts the Medicaid program, with an estimated 11.8 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid coverage over the next decade, resulting in a projected savings of approximately $700 billion [3][6] Defense Spending - The Act increases defense spending, adding funds for shipbuilding, ammunition production, and missile defense systems, amidst an already existing $1 trillion defense budget [3][4] Energy Policy - The Act reduces subsidies for clean energy while supporting traditional energy industries, aiming to revitalize coal and oil sectors [3][4] Economic Implications - The Act is expected to increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade, potentially leading to higher interest payments and constraining public investment in infrastructure, education, and research [6] - While businesses may benefit from short-term tax cuts, rising government debt could lead to increased market interest rates, raising financing costs for companies in the long run [6] Social Impact - The implementation of the Act may exacerbate social inequality, with cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs adversely affecting low-income and disabled populations, potentially leading to increased social unrest [6] International Effects - The Act's fiscal policy adjustments may impact global economic dynamics, potentially diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities and causing capital outflows from the U.S., which could lead to volatility in global financial markets [7] - Increased defense spending may heighten regional military tensions and affect the strategic balance among major powers, influencing global geopolitical dynamics [7]