美总统被日本反将一军，石破茂：你敢加关税，我就抛售美债

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and Japan, highlighting Japan's strong response to potential U.S. tariffs and the significant economic implications for both countries. Group 1: Economic Impact - Japan's automotive industry contributes 8% to the national GDP and relies on the U.S. market for 28.3% of its exports, making it a critical area in the trade conflict [1] - If the U.S. imposes a 25% tariff, Japanese automotive companies could face annual losses of 4.46 trillion yen, putting 120,000 jobs at risk [1] - Japan currently imposes a 778% tariff on imported rice, which is a key political issue for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [3] Group 2: Financial Leverage - Japan holds a significant amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, and officials have indicated readiness to sell these bonds in response to U.S. tariff actions [3] - A previous sale of $20 billion in U.S. bonds by Japan led to a spike in U.S. ten-year Treasury yields to 4.5% [3] - If Japan were to sell a trillion dollars in bonds, it could lead to U.S. mortgage rates exceeding 8% and significantly increase corporate borrowing costs [3] Group 3: Employment Concerns - Japanese companies employ 880,000 workers in the U.S., with Toyota alone supporting 27,000 American families in Kentucky [3] - 23 Japanese companies, including Honda and Nissan, have prepared plans to withdraw investments from the U.S. [3] - Toyota's recent decision to redirect a planned $3.6 billion investment from Texas to Mexico is seen as a direct response to U.S. trade policies [3] Group 4: Political Dynamics - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections are influencing the government's stance, with pressure from agricultural lawmakers against any concessions [6] - The threat of U.S. tariffs has reportedly increased voter turnout by 70% [6] - Japanese automotive companies are initiating domestic production plans to reduce reliance on U.S. parts, aiming to cut 34% of their U.S. component orders [6] Group 5: Historical Context - The article draws parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, noting that Japan's sale of $23 billion in bonds at that time caused a 7.3% drop in the Dow Jones index [6] - Current warnings suggest that a similar bond sell-off could have severe repercussions for the U.S. economy, including a potential 15% increase in supermarket prices [6]