横竖都是死！日本七次硬刚美国：选择“投共”还是豁出去反了？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the deteriorating relationship between Japan and the United States, particularly under the Trump administration, focusing on the impact of proposed tariffs on the Japanese automotive industry and the broader economic implications for Japan [1][14]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The automotive industry is crucial to Japan's economy, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 34% of Japan's total exports, and the total value of vehicle exports and parts reaching 7.2 trillion yen in 2024, supporting approximately 5.6 million jobs [1][3]. - A potential 25% tariff on Japanese cars could lead to a GDP reduction of at least 0.8%, with a greater than 50% chance of Japan entering a recession next year [3]. - The collapse of the automotive sector could trigger a domino effect, impacting steel, electronics, and logistics industries, leading to widespread unemployment and social unrest [5]. Group 2: Political Context - The upcoming Senate elections are critical for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government, which faces low approval ratings (19% for the ruling party and 24% for Ishiba's cabinet) and high disapproval (57%) [8]. - Any concessions to the U.S. regarding agricultural market access or automotive tariffs could jeopardize the support of rural and industrial workers, crucial voter bases for the ruling party [8]. - Public sentiment towards the U.S. has significantly declined, with only 22% of respondents expressing trust in the U.S., and 62% supporting a firm stance in negotiations [10]. Group 3: Military and Security Concerns - The presence of approximately 50,000 U.S. troops and 177 military bases in Japan adds a layer of military pressure, complicating Japan's ability to respond to economic challenges [11]. - The U.S. has linked trade negotiations with security issues, demanding Japan increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, which could further strain Japan's financial resources [14].