铁矿石：发运降、需求弱，短期矿价震荡偏强

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a short-term price fluctuation with a tendency to strengthen, driven by seasonal supply declines, weak demand, and changing inventory levels [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons week-on-week [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons, with shipments to China at 14.537 million tons, down 3.231 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons [1] Demand Summary - Daily average pig iron production was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1] Inventory Summary - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily dispatch volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 36,100 tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The seasonal decline in iron ore shipments is evident, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while near-term arrivals have increased [1] - The decline in pig iron production is attributed to routine maintenance in some regions and weather conditions in Hebei [1] - The port arrivals fell short of expectations, leading to a decrease in port inventories and an increase in steel mills' imported ore stocks [1] - As July approaches, macroeconomic expectations are influencing the market, with a rebound in related commodities due to "anti-involution" trends [1] - The healthy profitability of steel mills and the absence of significant supply pressure suggest a short-term upward price trend for iron ore, with a need for risk control and attention to market sentiment and macroeconomic developments [1]