黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.7.13）

Group 1: Market Overview - The week started with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, followed by a rebound on Wednesday and continued upward movement on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a weekly candlestick with a lower shadow [2] - The Trump administration has intensified trade policies, imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on imported copper, which may lead to increased manufacturing costs in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $100.4 billion in May 2024, contributing to uncertainty in trade policies that support gold prices [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% during the June meeting, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood for July is only 15% [3] - Various Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on potential rate cuts, with some supporting a July cut while others remain cautious [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Indicators - The upcoming focus will be on the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a 3.1% year-over-year increase and a 3.4% rise in core CPI, which could influence the likelihood of a July rate cut [4] - Other important economic indicators include retail sales and the preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The current market movement aligns with the expected wave structure, indicating that the second wave's adjustment is concluding, and a third wave structure is anticipated to begin [8] - The focus for the upcoming week will be on confirming the completion of the second wave's three-wave structure before entering the C-3 wave opportunity [11]