Milkground(SH:600882) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-13 10:28Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its product matrix and strengthening its ambient product offerings, integrating Mengniu Cheese to diversify C-end channels and synergize B-end channels, leading to a significant improvement in profitability by H1 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment rating has been upgraded to "Buy." The company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.44 (+0.01), 0.64 (+0.01), and 0.85 (+0.01) yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 97.7%, 46.8%, and 32.6% respectively [2]. - The company expects a significant increase in profitability for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.29%-88.86%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 90-115 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.22%-102.16% [2]. - Following the acquisition of Mengniu Cheese, the company reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 68.10%-103.12% when compared to adjusted data, with a similar growth rate for net profit excluding non-recurring items [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. The C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced to enhance coverage in family dining and ready-to-eat nutrition scenarios [3]. - The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu Cheese's strengths in cream and butter, while Miaokelando's main B-end products include mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese, enhancing collaborative synergies [3]. - The C-end channel strategy is evolving from a focus on key accounts to a more diversified approach, actively expanding into growth channels such as snack retail, membership stores, and convenience stores, while strengthening partnerships with restaurants and industrial enterprises in the B-end [3]. Integration and Efficiency Enhancement - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened collaboration across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales, enhancing operational management and brand effects [3]. - The company is advancing refined and precise management operations, with expectations of further improvements in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].