7/13文华商品强势上涨，下周是持续高开高走还是昙花一现

Group 1: Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index experienced a significant fluctuation, breaking through the 162-point resistance level but quickly falling back, indicating a false breakout signal [3] - The commodity index has undergone a complete wave correction since peaking in October 2021 and is currently in a new upward phase, with the third wave of growth just beginning [3] - The internal structure of the index shows clear differentiation, with the coal sector leading the market due to supply-side reform expectations and active procurement from downstream steel mills [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a rebound in the South China Commodity Index, which has risen over 6% since June and more than 2% in July, driven by low valuations and marginal improvements in fundamentals [5] - The glass market has shown a notable response to policy expectations, with a significant increase in production and sales rates, particularly in Hubei, leading to a substantial reduction in national inventory [7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The commodity market is experiencing a clear divergence, with strong price increases in sectors related to the new energy industry, black metals, building materials, and chemicals, while agricultural products remain relatively weak [8] - The black metal sector continues its rebound, with notable price increases in rebar and raw materials, while non-ferrous metals are experiencing volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The continuation of the strong market performance depends on three key variables: the realization of policy expectations, the matching of supply and demand rhythms, and the degree of demand fulfillment during peak seasons [10] - Historical data indicates that the fourth quarter is a traditional peak demand season for glass, with significant construction activity expected, which could positively impact prices if inventory reductions continue [11] - The commodity market is at a crossroads, with seasonal patterns suggesting an upcoming demand peak in the second half of the year, particularly for coal, oil, and petrochemical products [10][11]