尿素期现价格冲高 后市关注农业需求淡季能否承接上游高供应压力

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing a significant price increase due to multiple factors, including rising international prices, improved export expectations, and stable domestic demand [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of July 10, domestic urea spot prices rose by 10 to 30 yuan per ton, with further increases of 5 to 20 yuan per ton reported on July 12 [2]. - Urea futures prices have also increased, reflecting a bullish market sentiment [2]. - The main sales market's spot price increased from 1750 yuan per ton to over 1800 yuan per ton in the past week [2]. Group 2: International Market Influences - Recent Indian tender prices significantly exceeded market expectations, with East Coast prices reaching 495 USD per ton [3]. - The price in the Middle East and North Africa markets jumped to around 480 USD per ton, influenced by the Indian price increase [2][3]. - The domestic export guidance price for small granular urea reached 440 USD per ton, equivalent to approximately 3000 yuan per ton in the main production areas [2]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic agricultural demand is entering a seasonal slowdown, but there remains some incremental demand in certain regions [2]. - The total port inventory of urea reached nearly 490,000 tons as of July 10, significantly higher than historical levels for the same period [2]. - Urea production in the previous week was reported at 198,000 tons per day, which is about 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that international urea prices will remain high, with strong domestic export expectations stabilizing urea prices [5]. - In the medium to long term, the high profit margins for upstream coal-based urea producers may lead to sustained high production levels, putting pressure on future urea prices [5]. - The market is currently characterized by high supply, weak domestic demand, and strong export expectations, with a potential increase in production capacity of nearly 2 million tons expected to impact future supply dynamics [5].