3 6 Ke·2025-07-14 00:32Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition in the food delivery market, particularly between Meituan and Taobao, is characterized by aggressive subsidy strategies, with expectations that this "super Saturday" promotion will continue for at least the next two years [1][44]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent "Super Saturday" event saw a significant increase in consumer engagement, with Meituan achieving a record of 1.2 billion orders in a single day, including over 1 billion food orders [3][12]. - Both Meituan and Taobao have shifted from aggressive subsidies to a more controlled "drip irrigation" subsidy strategy, indicating a response to previous over-saturation and regulatory signals against excessive competition [4][6]. - The food delivery market's share in China's retail sector has been steadily increasing, reaching 11.4% in 2024, highlighting the growing importance of local and high-frequency consumption [14][16]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Meituan and Taobao are employing creative subsidy tactics, such as random free orders and time-limited coupons, to encourage consumer habits and manage subsidy costs effectively [6][7]. - The competition is not just about food delivery but also about integrating these services into broader e-commerce strategies, with both companies aiming to leverage high-frequency users for cross-selling opportunities [18][21]. - The financial implications of the subsidy war are significant, with estimates suggesting that total investments could reach hundreds of billions, akin to national subsidies, indicating a fierce battle for market dominance [27][28]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of these aggressive subsidy strategies, questioning whether they will yield long-term benefits or merely serve as a short-term tactic to boost user engagement [38][39]. - The future of the food delivery market is tied to the growth of instant retail, with predictions that the market could reach a GMV of 4 trillion RMB by 2030, making the current investments seem rational if the market expands as anticipated [35][36]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like Alibaba and JD.com also adjusting their strategies to capture market share in the rapidly growing instant retail sector [30][32].