黑色系商品集体走强，原油回归基本面主导

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance from July 7 to July 11, with the black series and European shipping lines leading gains, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 1.85%, while crude oil rose by 2.07% and lithium carbonate increased by 1.58% [1] - The black series saw significant increases, with coking coal up by 8.76%, coke up by 6.04%, and iron ore up by 4.30% [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 8.76%, reaching 913.0 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of supply-side reforms and policies aimed at reducing "disorderly competition" [1][2] - Despite the price rebound, the supply-side remains loose, with domestic production recovering and import capabilities from Mongolia and Russia remaining strong [1][2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between weak realities and strong expectations in July, with potential pressures on coking coal prices due to reduced production incentives and seasonal demand declines [2][3] Group 3: Oil Market Trends - The geopolitical premium in oil prices has dissipated, with Brent crude oil rising by 3.09% to $70.63 per barrel, while WTI crude oil increased by 1.28% to $67.35 per barrel [4] - The oil market is returning to fundamentals, with OPEC+ discussing production increases, which may exceed market expectations [4][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised global oil demand growth down to 720,000 barrels per day from previous estimates, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.1% decrease in June CPI and a 3.6% year-on-year decline in PPI, indicating mixed economic signals [6] - Core CPI showed a slight recovery, supported by policies promoting durable goods, while PPI's decline reflects seasonal demand downturns in energy sectors [6][7] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and overcapacity, leading to price rebounds in industrial products like coking coal and rebar [6][7] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In the lithium carbonate market, supply is expected to remain high due to ongoing production ramp-ups, while demand from traditional automotive sales may face challenges [7] - The iron ore market is supported by resilient demand, although global shipments are expected to increase in the second half of the year [7] - The agricultural sector, particularly in live pig prices, is experiencing a decline, but future supply increases from new piglets may stabilize prices in the coming quarters [8]