欧盟设定90%减排目标，“2035年禁燃令”或提前着陆？

Core Points - The European Union (EU) has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, which raises questions about the potential acceleration of the 2035 ban on combustion engine vehicles [2][3] - The 2035 ban on the sale of new combustion engine cars and small vans is a key measure for the EU to push the automotive industry towards zero emissions and achieve carbon neutrality [4] - The automotive industry is facing challenges in meeting the ambitious targets due to declining electric vehicle sales and insufficient charging infrastructure [5][6] Group 1: Policy Developments - The EU's new target for 2040 represents a significant increase from the current goal of a 55% reduction by 2030, indicating a stronger commitment to climate action [2] - The 2035 ban allows exemptions for synthetic fuel vehicles and small manufacturers, but the new 2040 target compresses the timeline for compliance [3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The European electric vehicle market has shown weak sales performance, with forecasts for 2030 electric vehicle sales being revised down from 9.6 million to 8.3 million [5] - The current charging infrastructure is inadequate, with a projected need for 8.8 million charging points by 2030, while existing distribution is heavily concentrated in a few countries [5] - Major European automakers are expressing concerns about the impact of the ban on their survival and growth, highlighting the financial difficulties associated with the transition to electric vehicles [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the likelihood of the 2035 ban being implemented earlier is low, with a greater chance of delays due to market performance and infrastructure challenges [7] - There are calls from social groups to reconsider the policy, indicating resistance to the existing ban and potential adjustments in response to market conditions [7] - The ultimate direction of the 2035 ban will significantly impact the automotive and energy sectors, necessitating a balance between environmental goals and economic development [8]