重点城市房产经纪行业：一线更韧性三四线城市最脆弱

Group 1: Industry Overview - The real estate brokerage industry experienced a decline in the business climate index, dropping to 45.2 in June 2025, remaining below the neutral line for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient market activity despite some improvements in certain indicators [1][2][5] - The average index for the first half of 2025 was 47, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5, with expectations for a potential rebound in the second half of the year, particularly after July [2][13] Group 2: Market Activity Indicators - The decline in the business climate index is attributed to significantly reduced market activity, with the operational vitality index falling to 0.43, the lowest level since February, driven by seasonal factors and economic conditions [5][6] - The time properties remain on the market has increased, with the index rising from 0.38 in May to 0.40 in June, indicating longer transaction cycles and reduced market liquidity [5][6] Group 3: City-Level Analysis - Among the 46 monitored cities, only Wuxi had a business climate index above the neutral line at 55.7, while all first-tier cities were below 50, with an average index of approximately 45.5 [9][12] - The performance varied significantly across city tiers, with first-tier cities showing more resilience, while third and fourth-tier cities exhibited the weakest market conditions, with 83% of these cities experiencing a decline in their indices [10][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is currently in a contraction phase, and key indicators such as operational vitality and time on the market need to be closely monitored for signs of recovery [5][13] - Historical trends suggest that July may serve as a turning point for the industry, warranting attention from market participants [13]