蔚蓝锂芯(002245)2025年中报预告点评:Q2业绩超市场预期 锂电池盈利水平亮眼

Core Insights - The company reported Q2 performance exceeding market expectations, with net profit for H1 ranging from 300 to 360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 79% to 115% [1] - Q2 net profit reached 160 to 220 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 63% to 125% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% to 54% [1] - The company is expanding into new fields with the launch of semi-solid cylindrical products, anticipating significant growth in the lithium battery sector [2] Financial Performance - H1 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 300 to 360 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 320 to 380 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 156% to 204% [1] - Q2 shipments reached nearly 180 million units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30%, with profit per unit rising to 0.6 yuan [1] - The lithium battery segment contributed over 100 million yuan in profit during Q2, with a unit profit increase of 50% to 60% [1] Product Development - The company launched a new semi-solid cylindrical product in July, featuring an energy density of 350 Wh/kg and a cycle life exceeding 8000 cycles, with mass production validation expected by year-end [2] - Plans for 2027 include mass production of a solid-state cylindrical battery with an energy density of 500 Wh/kg [2] - The company’s new product lines, including BBU, robotics, and eVTOL, are expected to ramp up production between 2026 and 2027, with significantly better profitability than traditional sectors [2] Other Business Segments - The LED business showed strong profitability, contributing over 50 million yuan in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [2] - The metal logistics segment contributed 40 million yuan in Q2, with stable cash flow expected to continue [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 55%, 33%, and 31% [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 21x, 16x, and 12x, with a target price of 20 yuan based on a 30x PE for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]