美联储降息救市！7月12日，深夜的四大消息已全面来袭

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by recent economic data and geopolitical events, highlighting a shift in market expectations and internal debates within the Fed regarding monetary policy [1][2][4][9]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The June CPI data showed a decline in core inflation for the third consecutive month, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1]. - Goldman Sachs' report predicts that the Fed will not cut rates in July but may do so in September, October, and December, with a total of two additional cuts expected in 2026 [2]. - Wage growth is slowing, and tourism demand is weak, contributing to a decrease in inflation expectations [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Fed is experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts while others express concerns about tariffs leading to sustained inflation [7]. - Christopher Waller, a key Fed official, has suggested increasing the proportion of short-term Treasury bills in the Fed's asset portfolio to enhance flexibility in monetary policy [4][5]. - Waller's stance on rate cuts is not politically motivated, emphasizing the need for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet from $6.7 trillion to $5.8 trillion [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of significant tariffs by the Trump administration on imports from several countries has created uncertainty in global markets, impacting economic forecasts [8]. - Geopolitical risks, including events in Ukraine, are becoming increasingly relevant in the Fed's economic assessments and interest rate decisions [9].