日本央行可能考虑上调通胀预测，7月会议成焦点

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering raising its inflation forecast during the policy meeting on July 31, primarily due to rising food and energy prices, with a specific focus on the significant increase in rice prices [1][4] - The current fiscal year's inflation forecast may be adjusted from 2.2%, reflecting the unexpected surge in food prices, particularly rice, which has doubled in the past year [4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to rising oil prices, providing further justification for the potential adjustment in inflation forecasts [4] Group 2 - Market observers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite the possible upward revision of short-term inflation forecasts [4] - The Bank of Japan does not anticipate making significant adjustments to the overall economic and inflation outlook, believing that price trends will align with sustainable inflation targets in the latter half of the three-year outlook period ending March 2028 [4] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies on upcoming data to determine the timing of future interest rate hikes [4][5] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan will not consider the impact of the recently announced 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean products in its forecasts, as trade negotiations are ongoing and tariff levels may change [5] - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the need to observe the actual data to assess the specific effects of tariff policies, which will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions [5]