十年国债ETF（511260）规模超150亿元，近5日净流入额超3亿元

Core Viewpoint - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen a net inflow of over 300 million yuan in the past five days, with a current scale exceeding 15 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity. The expectation of potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year could lead to a downward adjustment in the ten-year bond yield, currently at 1.65%, by 10-20 basis points, making it an attractive investment option for stable coupon income and potential excess returns from future rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1 - The ten-year government bond ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years. The average duration of the current portfolio is 7.6 years. Historical performance shows a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, a five-year return of 19.26%, and a cumulative return of 34.63% since inception [2]. - The ETF has maintained positive returns every year since its inception, indicating its potential as a resilient asset allocation tool across market cycles [2]. Group 2 - The ten-year government bond ETF offers unique advantages, including T+0 trading, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which is beneficial in a high-volatility market [3]. - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [4]. - The ETF provides transparency in holdings with daily published PCF lists and allows for pledge repurchase, enabling investors to leverage their ETF holdings for other investment opportunities [5]. Group 3 - The third quarter is viewed as a favorable period for long-term bonds, with expectations of stable growth policies being less likely to be implemented before the end of the third quarter. The ten-year bond yield is anticipated to be around 1.65%, with potential adjustments based on fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [5].