北京消费结构与趋势｜国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所研究员王微:消费市场进入深度调整期

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is undergoing a profound structural transformation, shifting from a goods-dominated model to a service-oriented one, presenting both new growth opportunities and challenges [1][4][6] Group 1: Consumption Market Trends - The growth rate of social retail sales (社零额) has been declining and has even fallen below GDP growth in recent years, reflecting changes in economic development stages [3][4] - In the first five months of this year, the national social retail sales growth rate rebounded due to consumption-boosting policies, but major cities like Beijing still experienced a slowdown or decline [4][5] - By 2024, the proportion of service consumption in household consumption is expected to reach 47%, indicating a significant structural change that necessitates a more comprehensive consumption statistics system [4][5] Group 2: Government Policies and Measures - Various levels of government have implemented a series of policies to stimulate consumption, including short-term measures like trade-in programs and subsidies for large consumer goods [4][5] - Long-term reforms focus on cultivating a consumption ecosystem, such as expanding visa-free entry and improving payment convenience to boost international tourism and consumption [5][6] - Local governments are innovating policy measures, such as establishing consumption innovation funds to support emerging consumer enterprises and enhance the consumption environment [5][6] Group 3: Emerging Consumption Trends - Despite the slowdown in traditional consumption, new consumption drivers are rapidly emerging, characterized by the growth of digital consumption, the rise of green consumption, and the prominence of domestic brands [5][6] - In 2024, the number of new consumer goods is projected to reach 21.639 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, primarily in cosmetics, clothing, and home goods, showcasing the close link between manufacturing and the consumer market [5][6] Group 4: Challenges in Consumption Market - The transformation of the consumption market faces challenges such as unstable employment, slowing income growth, insufficient service supply, and the need for an improved consumption environment [5][6] - Issues related to product quality, after-sales service, and consumer rights protection continue to restrict the release of consumption potential [5][6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The consumption market is at a critical juncture of structural adjustment, transitioning from goods to services and from traditional to emerging consumption models, which presents both challenges and opportunities [6] - Collaborative efforts among government, enterprises, and consumers are essential to drive sustainable development in the consumption market and support the new development pattern [6]