Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the financial landscape in the U.S. is being reshaped by Trump's policies, leading to increased risk premiums for financial assets due to policy ambiguity and excessive fiscal consumption [1][2] - Trump's trade war aims to strategically contain China and generate revenue to address U.S. debt issues, but even a 20% tariff could only yield an additional $185.2 billion, insufficient to cover interest payments on the debt [1] - The bank's investment strategy has been adjusted to maintain a neutral allocation to equities, with expectations of performance divergence across sectors and regions, favoring the U.S. technology sector and service industries over commodity-focused sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The market in Q3 2025 is expected to be dominated by three themes: easing of tariff tensions, divergence in stock performance, and fiscal pressures that are unfavorable for government bonds and the dollar but beneficial for gold [2] - The unexpected easing of U.S.-China tensions is driven by pragmatic considerations, as the high tariffs effectively act as a trade embargo harming both parties [2] - The bank anticipates that while practical approaches may reduce tariff tensions, stock performance will significantly diverge, with technology and service sectors outperforming the market [2]
星展：第三季转向防御性策略 维持股票中性配置 看好美国科技行业
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-14 08:25