5年后，房子大赚还是血亏？内行人9字说透了

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese real estate market is undergoing a brutal wealth reshuffle, characterized by significant regional disparities rather than a simple rise or fall in prices [1] Group 1: First-Tier Cities - In core areas of first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, property prices remain stable, with Shanghai's Pudong New District achieving an average transaction price of 78,300 CNY per square meter in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3] - Homeowners in these areas are reluctant to sell due to the presence of top-tier schools, hospitals, and convenient transportation, making relocation a costly decision [3] - Even older properties in prime locations can command prices exceeding 100,000 CNY per square meter, attracting numerous potential buyers [3] Group 2: Second-Tier Cities - Strong second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu see price fluctuations driven by industrial development and population growth, with Hangzhou's future tech city experiencing a 3% price increase due to the presence of major tech companies [6] - Conversely, cities like Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang face severe challenges, including a lack of industrial highlights and ongoing population outflow, leading to significant inventory buildup and price drops of up to 20% [6] Group 3: Third and Fourth-Tier Cities - Third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing drastic price declines, with cities like Hegang seeing prices drop to 3,000 CNY per square meter, and properties in areas like Shaanxi and Gansu being unsold even at 200,000 CNY for an 80 square meter unit [7] - Developers in these regions are resorting to extreme promotional tactics, such as offering appliances with low down payments, but these efforts yield minimal results due to population loss [7] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Government Policies - Despite government measures like lowering mortgage rates to 3.8% and relaxing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, these benefits have not reached third and fourth-tier cities, where banks are hesitant to lend [9] - The market is witnessing a shift where savvy investors are selling off low-quality properties in less desirable areas to acquire core assets in prime locations, reflecting a strategic repositioning in response to market conditions [9][10] - Data from July 2025 indicates a slight decline in first-tier city prices by 0.8%, while second-tier cities fell by 3.1% and third-tier cities plummeted by 4.5%, contrasting with a 4.2% increase in Beijing's Haidian district [9]