Core Viewpoint - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) has raised alarms regarding the excessive growth of "hidden debt" in the form of dollar financing through foreign exchange swaps, which is not reflected on balance sheets and lacks sufficient disclosure. The global balance of this hidden debt is projected to reach $98 trillion by the end of 2024, up from $41 trillion at the end of 2008, indicating a significant liquidity risk in the event of a financial shock [1][2][4]. Group 1: Hidden Debt Overview - Hidden debt primarily refers to dollars raised through financial derivatives known as "foreign exchange swaps," which involve exchanging domestic currency for dollars and require repayment in dollars after a specified period, typically less than one year [1][2]. - As of the end of 2023, nearly half of the total hidden debt, amounting to $41 trillion, is held by banks located outside the United States [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The scale of hidden debt presents a significant regulatory gap, as non-bank institutions, such as investment funds, are major users of foreign exchange swaps and are less regulated than banks, leading to insufficient information disclosure [2][4]. - In the event of a financial shock, financial institutions may face higher costs to secure dollars or may be forced to sell dollar assets, potentially worsening their financial conditions [4]. Group 3: Japanese Banks' Situation - As of March 2025, Japan's three major banks—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group—have foreign currency deposits that do not fully cover their foreign currency loans, indicating a state of over-lending with loan-to-deposit ratios of 109%, 131%, and 127% respectively [4][5]. - These banks have raised significant amounts through corporate bonds and longer-term swaps, with Mitsubishi UFJ at $82 billion, Sumitomo Mitsui at $146 billion, and Mizuho at $93.7 billion, but still face risks of dollar shortages due to potential loan surges or deposit outflows [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Uncertainties - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of financial institutions and corporations in securing dollars, leading to a temporary dollar shortage that was alleviated by the Federal Reserve's actions through central banks [5]. - There is growing uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue to supply dollars in emergencies, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and potential economic downturns that could lead to liquidity tightening [5].
金融危机新火种：98万亿美元隐性债务
3 6 Ke·2025-07-14 11:08