日本政坛暗流涌动！参议院变天或引爆“日债核爆”

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bonds experienced a significant drop, leading to a sharp rise in yields, which has raised concerns in the global bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - The yields on Japanese government bonds from 10-year to 40-year maturities surged, reminiscent of the yield spikes that affected global markets in May [1] - Analysts suggest that the rise in yields is linked to concerns over increased government spending and liquidity issues [1] Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming Senate elections may empower opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased government spending, potentially pressuring the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates [3] - Polls indicate that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition may lose its majority, leading to potential collaborations with smaller parties favoring expansionary fiscal and monetary policies [3][4] - If the ruling coalition retains its majority, Ishiba might still adopt a less hawkish fiscal stance to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs and rising living costs [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Japan's public debt stands at 250% of GDP, with a significant portion of the budget allocated to servicing this debt, raising concerns about rising debt servicing costs as the central bank moves away from zero interest rates [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider raising its inflation forecasts due to rising food costs, particularly rice, which has affected consumer prices [6][7] - Current inflation data shows core consumer inflation at 3.7%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, driven by a 7.7% increase in food costs [7]