下半年货币政策“适度宽松” 专家解读利率走势

Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will further implement a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance financial services for the real economy [1][2] - Predictions indicate potential reductions in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates in the second half of the year, with deposit rates expected to decline further [1][3] Banking Sector Adjustments - Several banks have lowered deposit rates and removed five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, reflecting a market-driven adjustment influenced by the decline in the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and government bond yields [1][3] - The net interest margin of commercial banks was reported at 1.43% as of the end of Q1 2025, indicating a historical low [3] Financial Institutions' Strategies - Banks are encouraged to optimize asset structures and increase the proportion of medium- to long-term assets while monitoring deposit interest rates dynamically to manage overall funding costs [1][4] - The trend of deposit long-termization continues, and the reduction in deposit rates is expected to alleviate interest expenses and stabilize funding costs, thereby improving banks' profitability [4][5] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework aims to standardize the deposit market and enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which is expected to lower the overall financing costs in society [4][5] - The supervision of high-interest deposit solicitation practices and the encouragement of banks to optimize deposit term structures are part of the efforts to ensure that interest rates reflect supply and demand dynamics [5]