裁了鲍威尔也无济于事？大摩："美联储影子主席"恐难撼动货币政策现状

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" to the Federal Reserve may not lead to an immediate shift in U.S. monetary policy as expected by the market [2][5]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Recent statements from Trump advocating for further interest rate cuts have heightened focus on the successor to Powell [2][3]. - Current market pricing indicates that investors expect the policy rate to be slightly above 3% by the end of next year, suggesting limited expectations for drastic policy changes after Powell's term ends [5]. Group 2: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Dynamics - The collective decision-making process of the FOMC restricts the ability of a new chairman to rapidly alter monetary policy, as decisions are made through a voting process involving all committee members [5][6]. - Even if a new chairman is appointed, the existing policy framework is likely to persist due to the FOMC's structure and the influence of current members [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - While short-term policy changes may be limited, the new chairman could gradually reshape the committee's composition over time through nominations, potentially influencing future policy directions [6][7]. - Historical trends suggest that politically appointed officials often moderate their previous stances to fulfill the institution's mandates, indicating that market caution may remain even with a new "shadow chairman" [6][7].