黄金时间一周金市回顾：通胀数据来袭，金价酝酿突破？

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced significant fluctuations but ended slightly higher, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and escalating trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold opened at $3,336.9 per ounce, peaked at $3,368.75, and closed at $3,354.75, marking a weekly increase of $17.81 or 0.53% [1]. - The price remains above the $3,550 mark, indicating a potential upward trend [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding the next interest rate path, with some officials advocating for a rate cut due to signs of labor market weakness and tariff impacts [2]. - Conversely, a majority of decision-makers expressed caution about the long-term inflation effects of tariffs, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before making any decisions [2]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Upcoming CPI data is critical, with expectations of an increase from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year, which could hinder the Fed's inclination to cut rates [2]. - Market predictions indicate that the Fed may not lower rates until at least September [2]. Group 4: Trade Tensions and Gold Demand - Recent trade tensions, including new tariffs announced by President Trump, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The economic slowdown expectations and ongoing geopolitical crises are also contributing factors to the rising gold prices [3]. Group 5: Market Positioning - As of July 4, the CME gold open interest increased by 8,432 contracts to 449,225, marking a second consecutive week of growth [4]. - However, the largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw a slight decrease in holdings, down 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [5]. Group 6: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a triangular consolidation pattern, with short-term resistance at $3,373-$3,395 per ounce and key resistance around $3,425 [5]. - Support levels are identified at $3,350-$3,340 per ounce, with critical support at $3,320-$3,300 [5].