SCSF(SH:600779) Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-07-14 14:06Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang (600779.SH) expects a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, despite a sales volume increase of over 10%, indicating a strategic adjustment during the industry's deep adjustment phase [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 105 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 137 million yuan, representing a 56.52% year-on-year decline [2]. - Expected revenue for the same period is 1.498 billion yuan, down 221 million yuan, or 12.84% year-on-year [2]. - The sales volume is projected to increase by 14.54%, totaling 543,000 liters, all from mid-to-high-end liquor products [2]. Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing significant pressure, leading to a slowdown in market recovery [2][3]. - The overall consumption performance during the Spring Festival was below expectations, resulting in higher-than-expected channel inventory levels, which affected post-holiday shipment volumes [3]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is implementing a "one city, one policy" approach for refined channel management to accelerate terminal sales, while also focusing on high-end cultural IP layout and brand investment [1][3]. - Water Jiufang has halted the sales of its "Zhen Niang No. 8" 500ml product across all channels to stabilize the market price system [6][7]. Industry Trends - Many leading liquor companies have announced supply halts or strict quota controls in response to the industry's adjustment cycle and unstable terminal prices [7]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the company's potential for a rebound in the second half of 2025, anticipating a gradual release of the synergistic effects of volume and price as consumption recovers and channel inventory is optimized [7].