TSM Likely to Beat Q2 Earnings Estimates: Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with a projected EPS of $2.37, reflecting a 60.1% year-over-year increase [1][6]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSM's Q2 earnings is $2.37 per share, revised upward by 3 cents over the past week [1][2]. - Revenue expectations for TSM are between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with the consensus estimate at $30.04 billion, indicating a 44.3% increase from the previous year [2][5]. Earnings Surprise History - TSM has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.9% [3]. Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - TSM has an Earnings ESP of +3.25%, indicating a favorable outlook for earnings performance [4]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting positive market sentiment [4]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rebound driven by the increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, which is a significant growth catalyst for TSM [5][6]. - TSM's leadership in advanced chip technologies, particularly in 3nm and 5nm processes, is expected to contribute to its growth [6][8]. Strategic Investments - TSM is investing heavily in next-generation technologies, with a capital expenditure forecast of $38 billion to $42 billion for 2025, focusing on advanced manufacturing processes [20]. - The company is expanding into high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphone sectors, which are anticipated to enhance its performance [8][9]. Market Position and Valuation - TSM shares have increased by 16.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 7.4% rise [11]. - TSM is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 22.48X, lower than the sector average of 27.39X and peers like NVIDIA and AMD [14][17]. Future Outlook - AI-related revenues for TSM tripled in 2024 and are expected to double again in 2025, with a projected 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [19]. - The company's strategic focus on growth opportunities is likely to continue boosting its financial performance [20][21].