Earnings Preview: BOK Financial (BOKF) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - BOK Financial (BOKF) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on July 21, and if the results exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for BOK Financial's quarterly earnings is $1.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2%, while revenues are projected to be $517.95 million, an increase of 4.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.96%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for BOK Financial is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.17%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a positive reading being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [9][10]. - BOK Financial currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat given the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, BOK Financial was expected to post earnings of $2.01 per share but delivered only $1.86, resulting in a surprise of -7.46% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Comparison - Private Bancorp of America, Inc. (PBAM), another player in the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.79 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 32.6% [18]. - PBAM's revenues are projected to be $30.5 million, up 16.4% from the previous year, but it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -2.79% despite a Zacks Rank of 2 [19][20].